Decision Making: Art and Science Course

Lesson 1 • What Decision Making Really Is

Defines decision making as a process of selecting among alternatives under uncertainty. Anchors all subsequent models in this foundational definition.

Lesson 2 • Intuition vs. Analysis in Decisions

Introduces dual-process theory and when each mode is appropriate. Sets the stage for integrating both approaches in later chapters.

Lesson 3 • Rational and Bounded Rationality Models

Contrasts fully rational models with Simon's bounded rationality. Explains why perfect optimization is rarely achievable in practice.

Lesson 4 • Types and Taxonomy of Decisions

Classifies decisions by complexity, reversibility, and stakes. Provides a shared vocabulary used throughout the course.

Lesson 1 • Judgment Biases in Information Processing

Covers anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics. Shows how each distorts probability estimates and risk perception.

Lesson 2 • Overconfidence and Escalation Traps

Addresses overconfidence, sunk-cost fallacy, and commitment escalation. These biases cause costly persistence in failing courses of action.

Lesson 3 • How Biases Form and Persist

Explains the psychological origins of cognitive bias and why they resist correction. Grounds bias awareness in neuroscience and behavioral research.

Lesson 4 • Confirmation and Framing Effects

Examines how people seek confirming evidence and how problem framing shifts choices. Directly relevant to strategic and analytical decisions.

Lesson 1 • Why Framing Determines Outcomes

Demonstrates how problem definition shapes the solution space. Uses case examples where reframing reversed a failing decision trajectory.

Lesson 2 • Problem Decomposition Techniques

Breaks complex problems into manageable components using structured tools. Prepares students for quantitative modeling in later chapters.

Lesson 3 • Reframing Stuck Problems

Applies lateral thinking and perspective-shifting to problems that resist standard analysis. Builds creative problem-structuring fluency.

Lesson 4 • Root Cause Analysis Methods

Teaches systematic techniques to distinguish symptoms from causes. Ensures decisions target the actual source of a problem.

Lesson 1 • Decision Matrices and Scoring Models

Introduces weighted scoring matrices to compare alternatives against defined criteria. Directly applies the criteria-setting skills from Chapter 3.

Lesson 2 • Quantitative Reasoning for Decision Makers

Covers essential numeracy skills: ratios, percentages, rates, and basic statistics. Equips non-specialists to interpret quantitative evidence confidently.

Lesson 3 • Logical Fallacies in Arguments

Identifies common reasoning errors that corrupt analytical conclusions. Strengthens critical evaluation of proposals and recommendations.

Lesson 4 • Cost-Benefit and Trade-off Analysis

Applies structured comparison of costs and benefits across decision options. Teaches trade-off reasoning when no option dominates on all criteria.

Lesson 1 • Risk vs. Uncertainty Distinction

Clarifies the difference between quantifiable risk and true uncertainty. Establishes the conceptual basis for all risk-management tools in this chapter.

Lesson 2 • Risk Appetite and Risk Tolerance

Defines organizational and personal risk appetite and how it shapes acceptable decisions. Connects individual risk attitudes to strategic decision boundaries.

Lesson 3 • Scenario Planning and Stress Testing

Applies scenario analysis to stress-test decisions against multiple futures. Builds resilience into plans before commitment.

Lesson 4 • Expected Value and Decision Trees

Teaches expected value calculation and decision tree construction for sequential choices. Integrates probability skills with structured option comparison.

Lesson 1 • Conflict and Disagreement as Decision Assets

Reframes productive conflict as a quality-improvement mechanism in group decisions. Teaches structured debate and dialectical inquiry methods.

Lesson 2 • Advantages and Pitfalls of Group Decisions

Compares individual and group decision quality across different problem types. Sets realistic expectations for when groups outperform individuals.

Lesson 3 • Groupthink and Social Pressure

Identifies the symptoms and causes of groupthink and conformity pressure. Provides structural countermeasures to protect decision quality.

Lesson 4 • Consensus, Voting, and Authority Models

Compares decision authority models from consensus to autocratic and their trade-offs. Helps leaders choose the right model for each decision context.

Lesson 1 • Time Pressure and Decision Quality

Examines how time constraints affect decision processes and outcomes. Provides strategies to maintain quality when speed is non-negotiable.

Lesson 2 • Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking

Applies systems thinking to decisions in environments with feedback loops and emergent behavior. Prevents linear thinking errors in complex contexts.

Lesson 3 • Crisis Decision Making Protocols

Provides structured protocols for decisions during crises when information is incomplete and stakes are extreme. Integrates all prior chapter skills.

Lesson 4 • Naturalistic Decision Making

Introduces Klein's recognition-primed decision model used by experts under pressure. Explains how experienced professionals make fast, accurate decisions.

Lesson 1 • Decision Quality and Governance

Introduces decision quality frameworks and governance structures that institutionalize good decisions. Moves beyond individual skill to organizational capability.

Lesson 2 • Portfolio Decisions and Resource Allocation

Covers prioritization frameworks for allocating limited resources across competing initiatives. Directly applicable to budget, project, and talent decisions.

Lesson 3 • From Decision to Execution

Bridges the gap between a chosen option and successful implementation. Addresses the execution failures that undermine even well-made decisions.

Lesson 4 • Strategic Decisions vs. Operational Decisions

Distinguishes strategic choices by their irreversibility, scope, and resource commitment. Establishes the unique demands of strategic decision making.